The ECB's stance against lowering benchmark rates to stimulate a flagging economy is founded in some pretty decent thought. Further justifying that stance is the inflation data out today, as reported in FT (another damn fine publication).
Bernanke et. al. (save the Dallas Fed president... the lone dissenting voice in yesterday's rate drop decision) are pandering tools. If not that, then they are growth obsessed reactionaries who would rather hope the economy sorts itself out (better growth and lower inflation) through market forces and, um, acts of God I guess, than fix it with policy decisions. Like, you know, their job and shit.
A weak dollar is a complicated animal, but another issue entirely. Our flagging GDP performance in the face of the weak dollar, combined with ever upwards-inching inflation shows us that the economic contributions of U.S. exports (made cheap by the weak dollar) are vastly outstripped by domestic consumer spending. With the economy on an--at this point--lazy downward spiral, domestic spending is going to go down and the economy will continue to shrink.
So what then? More rate cuts? Are the Fed going to swoop in and save the day again? Are they going to make a sacrifice at the altar of Wall Street so as to avoid more 100+ single-day-point -drops?
Sometimes shit is just broke. It's complicated and it's broke. Sometimes you don't have enough data. Sometimes it's out of your hands. Sometimes some bad has to come before some good. I don't know where I learned this--maybe in kindergarten, maybe from Robert Fulghum. It doesn't matter. What matters is that the Fed learns this, and that they stop putting all of their giant dam-ned spoons in the pot that just needs to sit for a bit.
To be fair, they have access to data that I couldn't dream of having. Maybe inflationary pressures aren't as bad as I think they are, both here and abroad.
Then again, maybe I'm right.
-S.W. America
PS - The Economist (Best Damn Magazine Ever) talks about Bernanke and the economy here. READ IT NOW!
31 January 2008
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